The latest fad seems to be to ignore the Running Back and go right for the Receivers first in the draft. This is not necessarily the smart thing to do.
The theory is two fold. One, the NFL has turned into a passing league, so it only makes sense you want the receivers. Especially in a points per reception league. The other reasoning is that Receivers do not get hurt as often as Running backs do. This means that if you draft a WR in the first two rounds, there is less of a chance you will lose your top guys during the season.
Both of these theories have some credence to them. Both make sense to a good degree. Neither is the winning move in my opinion.
Look, if you want to play it safe, then go wide receiver in the first two rounds. The problem with that is playing safe usually ends up in second or third place at best. If your goal is to do well, then drafting receivers early is perfect for you. If your goal is to win your fantasy league, then you are better off taking a little chance.
When judging who to draft, don't focus on the position so much as the drop off of players in each position. Because it doesn't matter what league you are in, everyone will need to fill their rosters. So if there are running backs on the rosters as well as receivers, then drafting the best RBs can be just as important as drafting the best WRs. Then again, it could be the best TE you need to draft. Though that may sound like a bit of a stretch to some, its not so big a stretch as you might think. Just do stretch it so far that you draft a kicker or defense in the first few rounds. Those two positions should never be drafted until late. Defenses can be drafted in the late rounds and kickers should always be drafted in the very last round.
Lets say your league is set up more friendly to receivers and the best receivers will get 140 points in a good week. A top RB will only get 110 points we will say. Many would think this is automatic to take the top receivers because they score more. Not necessarily.
Maybe you take two top WRs and settle for two second tier RBs. Joe Shmo drafts two top RBs and takes two second tier WRs. This is assuming there are two RB spots to start. So the top two WRs will get 60 more points than the two RBs. But what if the drop off from the top WRs is only 30 points from the top tier to the second tier but with RBs it is 40 points? Suddenly the second tier RBs are getting 80 points fewer than the top tier RBs. This means the guy with two top RBs will get 20 more points than the guy with two top receivers. Its not just the total points the players can get but what kind of drop off there is from one group to the next level.
If you look at the players and you believe there are 5 top tier RBs and then the points they get significantly drops off, and you think you can still get a good receiver in the 3rd round, then it might still be worth your trouble to get two top RBs on your team.
Remember, its not about having the top scoring player on your team. Its more important to have an entire team of good point scorers. If there are only 5 or 6 RBs that look like they will get the lions share of the work load and do well, then you want to try and get your starting RBs first if you can.
There can even be a scenario where you might see there is one top TE left on the board and you think you can fill the rest of your roster with decent players in deeper positions, so it becomes worth your trouble to take a TE sort of early.
One trick I like to use in drafting is to take my lists and break them up into positions. I sort those positions and I section them off according to tiers. I highlight the RBs who are worth taking in the top tier then I do the same with the receivers and TE and QBs. Then I highlight the second tier in each position with a different color. Then the next tiers. While I am drafting, I pay attention to who is left in those top tiers and try to add them. I draft by tier as much as I do by players. This will keep you from taking a second tier receiver that you can easily get a similar level player a round later and missing out on a higher level player of another position who is the last one or two available.
So basically, to put it blunt and short, don't listen to the fads of how to draft. Fill out your team with the best overall players you can across the board, no matter the positions. Except kicker and defense. Save them for last. :o)
9/04/2010
2010 Ultimate Top-200 Rankings
I do apologize for the lateness of these NFL Fantasy Football Player rankings. Due to time constraints and lack of income, I have not been able to place much time into it this year. However, I buckled down and put together this top-200 list for those who can still use it.
Rk Player Pos TM BYE
1 Chris Johnson RB TEN 9
2 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 4
3 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 9
4 Ray Rice RB BAL 8
5 Frank Gore RB SF 9
6 Michael Turner RB ATL 8
7 Andre Johnson WR HOU 7
8 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 10
9 Drew Brees QB NO 10
10 Steven Jackson RB STL 9
11 Randy Moss WR NE 5
12 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 6
13 Reggie Wayne WR IND 7
14 Peyton Manning QB IND 7
15 Ryan Mathews RB SD 10
16 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 6
17 Brandon Marshall WR MIA 5
18 Miles Austin WR DAL 4
19 Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT 5
20 Shonn Greene RB NYJ 7
21 DeSean Jackson WR PHI 8
22 Greg Jennings WR GB 10
23 Tom Brady QB NE 5
24 Roddy White WR ATL 8
25 Ryan Grant RB GB 10
26 Cedric Benson RB CIN 6
27 Marques Colston WR NO 10
28 Jamaal Charles RB KC 4
29 Calvin Johnson WR DET 7
30 Knowshon Moreno RB DEN 9
31 Matt Schaub QB HOU 7
32 Steve Smith WR CAR 6
33 Pierre Thomas RB NO 10
34 Chris Wells RB ARI 6
35 Philip Rivers QB SD 10
36 Anquan Boldin WR BAL 8
37 Tony Romo QB DAL 4
38 Joseph Addai RB IND 7
39 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 6
40 LeSean McCoy RB PHI 8
41 Matt Forte RB CHI 8
42 Dallas Clark TE IND 7
43 Steve Smith WR NYG 8
44 Wes Welker WR NE 5
45 Chad Ochocinco WR CIN 6
46 Antonio Gates TE SD 10
47 Jahvid Best RB DET 7
48 Vernon Davis TE SF 9
49 Ronnie Brown RB MIA 5
50 Michael Crabtree WR SF 9
51 Jermichael Finley TE GB 10
52 Hines Ward WR PIT 5
53 Mike Sims-Walker WR JAC 9
54 Arian Foster RB HOU 7
55 Jason Witten TE DAL 4
56 Dwayne Bowe WR KC 4
57 Brandon Jacobs RB NYG 8
58 Jay Cutler QB CHI 8
59 C.J. Spiller RB BUF 6
60 Hakeem Nicks WR NYG 8
61 Felix Jones RB DAL 4
62 Jerome Harrison RB CLE 8
63 Percy Harvin WR MIN 4
64 Mike Wallace WR PIT 5
65 Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG 8
66 Justin Forsett RB SEA 5
67 Brett Favre QB MIN 4
68 Brent Celek TE PHI 8
69 Reggie Bush RB NO 10
70 Santana Moss WR WAS 9
71 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL 8
72 Donald Driver WR GB 10
73 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI 8
74 Ricky Williams RB MIA 5
75 Terrell Owens WR CIN 6
76 Kevin Kolb QB PHI 8
77 Marion Barber RB DAL 4
78 Matt Ryan QB ATL 8
79 Cadillac Williams RB TB 4
80 Robert Meachem WR NO 10
81 Eli Manning QB NYG 8
82 T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR SEA 5
83 Joe Flacco QB BAL 8
84 Pierre Garcon WR IND 7
85 Thomas Jones RB KC 4
86 Clinton Portis RB WAS 9
87 Fred Jackson RB BUF 6
88 Steve Breaston WR ARI 6
89 Bernard Berrian WR MIN 4
90 Johnny Knox WR CHI 8
91 Carson Palmer QB CIN 6
92 Dez Bryant WR DAL 4
93 Donovan McNabb QB WAS 9
94 Darren McFadden RB OAK 10
95 Vincent Jackson WR SD 10
96 Chris Cooley TE WAS 9
97 Owen Daniels TE HOU 7
98 Kellen Winslow TE TB 4
99 Devin Aromashodu WR CHI 8
100 Michael Bush RB OAK 10
101 Donald Brown RB IND 7
102 Lee Evans WR BUF 6
103 Steve Slaton RB HOU 7
104 Braylon Edwards WR NYJ 7
105 Tim Hightower RB ARI 6
106 Jabar Gaffney WR DEN 9
107 Darren Sproles RB SD 10
108 Chester Taylor RB CHI 8
109 Derrick Mason WR BAL 8
110 Visanthe Shiancoe TE MIN 4
111 Malcom Floyd WR SD 10
112 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 9
113 LaDainian Tomlinson RB NYJ 7
114 Santonio Holmes WR NYJ 7
115 Nate Burleson WR DET 7
116 Kenny Britt WR TEN 9
117 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 5
118 Matthew Stafford QB DET 7
119 Laurence Maroney RB NE 5
120 Devin Hester WR CHI 8
121 Chad Henne QB MIA 5
122 Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ 7
123 Jets DEF NYJ 7
124 Mario Manningham WR NYG 8
125 Austin Collie WR IND 7
126 Heath Miller TE PIT 5
127 Eddie Royal WR DEN 9
128 Willis McGahee RB BAL 8
129 Zach Miller TE OAK 10
130 Chris Chambers WR KC 4
131 Davone Bess WR MIA 5
132 John Carlson TE SEA 5
133 Kevin Walter WR HOU 7
134 Vince Young QB TEN 9
135 Roy Williams WR DAL 4
136 Brandon Jackson RB GB 10
137 Julian Edelman WR NE 5
138 Vikings DEF MIN 4
139 Tarvaris Jackson QB MIN 4
140 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ 7
141 Greg Olsen TE CHI 8
142 Correll Buckhalter RB DEN 9
143 Mohamed Massaquoi WR CLE 8
144 Eagles DEF PHI 8
145 Matt Cassel QB KC 4
146 Anthony Gonzalez WR IND 7
147 Kyle Orton QB DEN 9
148 Sidney Rice WR MIN 4
149 Packers DEF GB 10
150 Jason Campbell QB OAK 10
151 Brian Westbrook RB
152 Alex Smith QB SF 9
153 Early Doucet WR ARI 6
154 Ravens DEF BAL 8
155 Golden Tate WR SEA 5
156 Cowboys DEF DAL 4
157 Mike Williams WR TB 4
158 Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA 5
159 Anthony Dixon RB SF 9
160 David Garrard QB JAC 9
161 Bernard Scott RB CIN 6
162 Mewelde Moore RB PIT 5
163 Jeremy Shockey TE NO 10
164 Steelers DEF PIT 5
165 Kevin Smith RB DET 7
166 Marshawn Lynch RB BUF 6
167 Devery Henderson WR NO 10
168 Antonio Bryant WR CIN 6
169 Chaz Schilens WR OAK 10
170 Julius Jones RB SEA 5
171 Arrelious Benn WR TB 4
172 Willie Parker RB WAS 9
173 Mike Bell RB
174 Dexter McCluster WR KC 4
175 Joshua Cribbs WR CLE 8
176 Patriots DEF NE 5
177 Toby Gerhart RB MIN 4
178 Larry Johnson RB WAS 9
179 49ers DEF SF 9
180 Louis Murphy WR OAK 10
181 Tony Scheffler TE DET 7
182 Kevin Boss TE NYG 8
183 Greg Camarillo WR MIN 4
184 Bengals DEF CIN 6
185 Nate Washington WR TEN 9
186 Javon Ringer RB TEN 9
187 Saints DEF NO 10
188 Legedu Naanee WR SD 10
189 Jimmy Graham TE NO 10
190 Dustin Keller TE NYJ 7
191 Chargers DEF SD 10
192 Leon Washington RB SEA 5
193 Cardinals DEF ARI 6
194 Bears DEF CHI 8
195 Colts DEF IND 7
196 Josh Morgan WR SF 9
197 Dolphins DEF MIA 5
198 Matt Leinart QB ARI 6
199 Giants DEF NYG 8
200 Brandon Pettigrew TE DET 7
Rk Player Pos TM BYE
1 Chris Johnson RB TEN 9
2 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 4
3 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 9
4 Ray Rice RB BAL 8
5 Frank Gore RB SF 9
6 Michael Turner RB ATL 8
7 Andre Johnson WR HOU 7
8 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 10
9 Drew Brees QB NO 10
10 Steven Jackson RB STL 9
11 Randy Moss WR NE 5
12 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 6
13 Reggie Wayne WR IND 7
14 Peyton Manning QB IND 7
15 Ryan Mathews RB SD 10
16 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 6
17 Brandon Marshall WR MIA 5
18 Miles Austin WR DAL 4
19 Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT 5
20 Shonn Greene RB NYJ 7
21 DeSean Jackson WR PHI 8
22 Greg Jennings WR GB 10
23 Tom Brady QB NE 5
24 Roddy White WR ATL 8
25 Ryan Grant RB GB 10
26 Cedric Benson RB CIN 6
27 Marques Colston WR NO 10
28 Jamaal Charles RB KC 4
29 Calvin Johnson WR DET 7
30 Knowshon Moreno RB DEN 9
31 Matt Schaub QB HOU 7
32 Steve Smith WR CAR 6
33 Pierre Thomas RB NO 10
34 Chris Wells RB ARI 6
35 Philip Rivers QB SD 10
36 Anquan Boldin WR BAL 8
37 Tony Romo QB DAL 4
38 Joseph Addai RB IND 7
39 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 6
40 LeSean McCoy RB PHI 8
41 Matt Forte RB CHI 8
42 Dallas Clark TE IND 7
43 Steve Smith WR NYG 8
44 Wes Welker WR NE 5
45 Chad Ochocinco WR CIN 6
46 Antonio Gates TE SD 10
47 Jahvid Best RB DET 7
48 Vernon Davis TE SF 9
49 Ronnie Brown RB MIA 5
50 Michael Crabtree WR SF 9
51 Jermichael Finley TE GB 10
52 Hines Ward WR PIT 5
53 Mike Sims-Walker WR JAC 9
54 Arian Foster RB HOU 7
55 Jason Witten TE DAL 4
56 Dwayne Bowe WR KC 4
57 Brandon Jacobs RB NYG 8
58 Jay Cutler QB CHI 8
59 C.J. Spiller RB BUF 6
60 Hakeem Nicks WR NYG 8
61 Felix Jones RB DAL 4
62 Jerome Harrison RB CLE 8
63 Percy Harvin WR MIN 4
64 Mike Wallace WR PIT 5
65 Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG 8
66 Justin Forsett RB SEA 5
67 Brett Favre QB MIN 4
68 Brent Celek TE PHI 8
69 Reggie Bush RB NO 10
70 Santana Moss WR WAS 9
71 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL 8
72 Donald Driver WR GB 10
73 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI 8
74 Ricky Williams RB MIA 5
75 Terrell Owens WR CIN 6
76 Kevin Kolb QB PHI 8
77 Marion Barber RB DAL 4
78 Matt Ryan QB ATL 8
79 Cadillac Williams RB TB 4
80 Robert Meachem WR NO 10
81 Eli Manning QB NYG 8
82 T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR SEA 5
83 Joe Flacco QB BAL 8
84 Pierre Garcon WR IND 7
85 Thomas Jones RB KC 4
86 Clinton Portis RB WAS 9
87 Fred Jackson RB BUF 6
88 Steve Breaston WR ARI 6
89 Bernard Berrian WR MIN 4
90 Johnny Knox WR CHI 8
91 Carson Palmer QB CIN 6
92 Dez Bryant WR DAL 4
93 Donovan McNabb QB WAS 9
94 Darren McFadden RB OAK 10
95 Vincent Jackson WR SD 10
96 Chris Cooley TE WAS 9
97 Owen Daniels TE HOU 7
98 Kellen Winslow TE TB 4
99 Devin Aromashodu WR CHI 8
100 Michael Bush RB OAK 10
101 Donald Brown RB IND 7
102 Lee Evans WR BUF 6
103 Steve Slaton RB HOU 7
104 Braylon Edwards WR NYJ 7
105 Tim Hightower RB ARI 6
106 Jabar Gaffney WR DEN 9
107 Darren Sproles RB SD 10
108 Chester Taylor RB CHI 8
109 Derrick Mason WR BAL 8
110 Visanthe Shiancoe TE MIN 4
111 Malcom Floyd WR SD 10
112 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 9
113 LaDainian Tomlinson RB NYJ 7
114 Santonio Holmes WR NYJ 7
115 Nate Burleson WR DET 7
116 Kenny Britt WR TEN 9
117 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 5
118 Matthew Stafford QB DET 7
119 Laurence Maroney RB NE 5
120 Devin Hester WR CHI 8
121 Chad Henne QB MIA 5
122 Jerricho Cotchery WR NYJ 7
123 Jets DEF NYJ 7
124 Mario Manningham WR NYG 8
125 Austin Collie WR IND 7
126 Heath Miller TE PIT 5
127 Eddie Royal WR DEN 9
128 Willis McGahee RB BAL 8
129 Zach Miller TE OAK 10
130 Chris Chambers WR KC 4
131 Davone Bess WR MIA 5
132 John Carlson TE SEA 5
133 Kevin Walter WR HOU 7
134 Vince Young QB TEN 9
135 Roy Williams WR DAL 4
136 Brandon Jackson RB GB 10
137 Julian Edelman WR NE 5
138 Vikings DEF MIN 4
139 Tarvaris Jackson QB MIN 4
140 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ 7
141 Greg Olsen TE CHI 8
142 Correll Buckhalter RB DEN 9
143 Mohamed Massaquoi WR CLE 8
144 Eagles DEF PHI 8
145 Matt Cassel QB KC 4
146 Anthony Gonzalez WR IND 7
147 Kyle Orton QB DEN 9
148 Sidney Rice WR MIN 4
149 Packers DEF GB 10
150 Jason Campbell QB OAK 10
151 Brian Westbrook RB
152 Alex Smith QB SF 9
153 Early Doucet WR ARI 6
154 Ravens DEF BAL 8
155 Golden Tate WR SEA 5
156 Cowboys DEF DAL 4
157 Mike Williams WR TB 4
158 Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA 5
159 Anthony Dixon RB SF 9
160 David Garrard QB JAC 9
161 Bernard Scott RB CIN 6
162 Mewelde Moore RB PIT 5
163 Jeremy Shockey TE NO 10
164 Steelers DEF PIT 5
165 Kevin Smith RB DET 7
166 Marshawn Lynch RB BUF 6
167 Devery Henderson WR NO 10
168 Antonio Bryant WR CIN 6
169 Chaz Schilens WR OAK 10
170 Julius Jones RB SEA 5
171 Arrelious Benn WR TB 4
172 Willie Parker RB WAS 9
173 Mike Bell RB
174 Dexter McCluster WR KC 4
175 Joshua Cribbs WR CLE 8
176 Patriots DEF NE 5
177 Toby Gerhart RB MIN 4
178 Larry Johnson RB WAS 9
179 49ers DEF SF 9
180 Louis Murphy WR OAK 10
181 Tony Scheffler TE DET 7
182 Kevin Boss TE NYG 8
183 Greg Camarillo WR MIN 4
184 Bengals DEF CIN 6
185 Nate Washington WR TEN 9
186 Javon Ringer RB TEN 9
187 Saints DEF NO 10
188 Legedu Naanee WR SD 10
189 Jimmy Graham TE NO 10
190 Dustin Keller TE NYJ 7
191 Chargers DEF SD 10
192 Leon Washington RB SEA 5
193 Cardinals DEF ARI 6
194 Bears DEF CHI 8
195 Colts DEF IND 7
196 Josh Morgan WR SF 9
197 Dolphins DEF MIA 5
198 Matt Leinart QB ARI 6
199 Giants DEF NYG 8
200 Brandon Pettigrew TE DET 7
7/24/2010
The Ego of Brett Favre
Once again Brett Favre is holding another NFL team hostage and once again the NFL team is tossing its dignity out a window to drop to its knees and bow before him.
3,867 yards, 31 TDs, 23 ITs, and a 63% Pass Completion. These are very good numbers. They may be near great numbers. They are not however, MVP type of numbers. In fact, Brett Favre has been the MVP three times. He has had more than 3,867 yards 11 times, more than 31 TD's six times, less than 23 IT's fourteen times, and better than 63% six times. If other seasons when Favre had better years, why was he not good enough for MVP in those other years?
In that same season, Barry Sanders had 2,053 yards, 14 total TD's and only lost 2 fumbles. The TD's and fumbles are good but the 2,053 yards rushing is a phenomenal season for a running back. Yet Sanders had to share that MVP with Brett Favre, not because it was the right thing to do for two players who had equally great seasons, but because it was necessary to appease the pet superstar of the NFL. In 1997 it became the standard way of the NFL world to bow down to the greatness of Brett Favre and it has never stopped.
It has been 4 or 5 seasons in a row now that Brett Favre would retire, then not retire or not be able to decide if he wanted to retire or not. He cares nothing about creating a better relationship and continuity with his teammates. He cares nothing for allowing the team to prepare one way or the other like they would if they got an upfront decision. He care nothing about the millions of fans who would want to know if he is playing. He cares nothing at all about the millions of Fantasy Football fans who would like to know how to set up their quarterback rankings. No, all Brett Favre cares about is Brett Favre. Who knows? Maybe if he loved himself just a little more, he would have shown up to camp earlier and worked with players in one way or another and just maybe then, he would have had better continuity with his receiver last season and not throw that last interception in the play-off game.
Yet the Vikings do not have enough dignity to tell Favre to either join the team or retire. They will fall to their knees and kiss his holy feet while waiting for him to decide what he wants to do as he always does at this time of the year.
Brett Favre, at one point, was one of the most loved players in all of the NFL. One of the most loved of all time. Every season there are more and more who grow sick of his pansy-ass ways of not being man enough to make a decision for the better of his team, his teammates and his fans. When will he finally get it over with? Before or after his status falls below that of Michael Vick? He may never fall that far, but it is a sad thing that I am beginning to have more respect for Terrell Owens than for Brett Favre.
3,867 yards, 31 TDs, 23 ITs, and a 63% Pass Completion. These are very good numbers. They may be near great numbers. They are not however, MVP type of numbers. In fact, Brett Favre has been the MVP three times. He has had more than 3,867 yards 11 times, more than 31 TD's six times, less than 23 IT's fourteen times, and better than 63% six times. If other seasons when Favre had better years, why was he not good enough for MVP in those other years?
In that same season, Barry Sanders had 2,053 yards, 14 total TD's and only lost 2 fumbles. The TD's and fumbles are good but the 2,053 yards rushing is a phenomenal season for a running back. Yet Sanders had to share that MVP with Brett Favre, not because it was the right thing to do for two players who had equally great seasons, but because it was necessary to appease the pet superstar of the NFL. In 1997 it became the standard way of the NFL world to bow down to the greatness of Brett Favre and it has never stopped.
It has been 4 or 5 seasons in a row now that Brett Favre would retire, then not retire or not be able to decide if he wanted to retire or not. He cares nothing about creating a better relationship and continuity with his teammates. He cares nothing for allowing the team to prepare one way or the other like they would if they got an upfront decision. He care nothing about the millions of fans who would want to know if he is playing. He cares nothing at all about the millions of Fantasy Football fans who would like to know how to set up their quarterback rankings. No, all Brett Favre cares about is Brett Favre. Who knows? Maybe if he loved himself just a little more, he would have shown up to camp earlier and worked with players in one way or another and just maybe then, he would have had better continuity with his receiver last season and not throw that last interception in the play-off game.
Yet the Vikings do not have enough dignity to tell Favre to either join the team or retire. They will fall to their knees and kiss his holy feet while waiting for him to decide what he wants to do as he always does at this time of the year.
Brett Favre, at one point, was one of the most loved players in all of the NFL. One of the most loved of all time. Every season there are more and more who grow sick of his pansy-ass ways of not being man enough to make a decision for the better of his team, his teammates and his fans. When will he finally get it over with? Before or after his status falls below that of Michael Vick? He may never fall that far, but it is a sad thing that I am beginning to have more respect for Terrell Owens than for Brett Favre.
6/28/2010
Which Fantasy Football Rankings To Use
First I will get one thing straight. This is not an article to lift NFL Fantasy Guide's Rankings above the other experts. I create my rankings for no other reason than to help you. That is why they are free. That is also why I am not against you taking other experts advice over mine either. I'm not making money off of it anyways!
The other day I found some time to start comparing some other experts rankings for my Ultimate Player Rankings. While I was looking up other rankings however, I noticed something. It amazes me how many so called "experts" out there offer a list of the Top 100 players overall. Only 100? Seriously? The standard ten team league at ESPN has 16 roster spots on each team. That is a total of 160 players! Personally, I prefer the 12 team leagues, so that is 192 players. Then you have to consider that someone might load up on a position sooner than you and you might need to be ready to go a little deeper. What is a minuscule 100 player cheat sheet suppose to do for you?
In my humble opinion, if the expert only gives you a top 100 overall players, that expert simply does not want to put in any real time to it. This would identify him as someone who is not digging into it deep enough. This is an expert you don't turn to for advice. There are enough fantasy football experts out there who will offer 150 players or more in their rankings, that you should look for one of them.
Another thing I will point out, and I have written an article on this before, is how they rank kickers. If they rank kickers inside of the top 150 players, you should be wary of them. If they rank kickers, any kickers, inside the top 100, run away as fast as you can.
Yes I know that kickers can get you a lot of points. I don't argue that. I realize and agree that it is important to have a good kicker on your fantasy football team. My point is not to take away from the importance of having a good kicker, but simply that your odds of picking a top kicker is nothing more than a crap shoot! Far more often than not, a kicker who is in the top ten just for kickers in one year, is not in the top ten the following year. It is actually pretty rare that they do make the top ten in consecutive seasons. If you take a kicker with the very last pick of the entire draft, you have just as much of a chance of getting a top ten kicker as the guy who drafted one in the tenth round.
You should load your roster with the best players you can in prime positions and take your kicker last. If you happen to pick a kicker who is having a bad year, you can still pick one up from the free agency. I guarantee you that there will be at least one or two owners who draft kickers earlier who will be looking for one as well. Yet there is a chance that the guy you draft in that earlier pick so you can take a kicker last might actually work out.
The fact is, the kicker is too dependent on too much that you cannot judge for him to have a good year. If his team scores too many Touchdowns, he will not get many field goal chances. If his offense is really bad, he wont get enough chances at extra points or field goals. If his team falls behind too much, they will not settle for field goals as often. The best kickers are the ones who are on teams that get close to the endzone but do not get a lot of touchdowns but are also good enough to stay in the game. They depend too much on the whole team, both offense and defense to play just the right way for them to be in the top ten in kickers. So any expert who claims kickers should be drafted early just don't truly understand the game.
If an expert expects you to pay for a membership to get his list, he is not for you. There are too many good experts out there who know what they are talking about who offer their cheat sheets for free. If they want you to pay in any way, they are more interested in making money than they are trying to help you.
If an expert tells you he knows more than any other expert, guarantees a winning draft or anything else ridiculous, he is lying. The fact is, every expert is biased! Every expert is human and being human, we are prone to have our favorite players and teams. No matter how much we study, we cannot know everything about every team and every player. It is impossible! I actually pride myself in being as unbiased as they come, but I know that even I will fall into the favorite stint now and then if only a little. This is exactly the reason I offer two different rankings here. One is my personal player rankings and the other is a comparison between several other experts. By comparing them I can find which players an expert is biased about and eliminate that ranking. Even NFL Fantasy Guide's Ultimate Rankings are not guaranteed to give you a championship, but I do believe they are the most accurate around. But of course that is me being biased. Hey, you have to expect me to lift my own site at least a little here right?
Seriously though, it does not matter whose rankings you want to trust. The draft is only one part of winning a championship anyway. But starting with a good draft can truly lift your odds much higher, so before you pick an experts rankings to follow, follow these rules in picking that expert. And that is the best advice I can give you in Fantasy Football.
The other day I found some time to start comparing some other experts rankings for my Ultimate Player Rankings. While I was looking up other rankings however, I noticed something. It amazes me how many so called "experts" out there offer a list of the Top 100 players overall. Only 100? Seriously? The standard ten team league at ESPN has 16 roster spots on each team. That is a total of 160 players! Personally, I prefer the 12 team leagues, so that is 192 players. Then you have to consider that someone might load up on a position sooner than you and you might need to be ready to go a little deeper. What is a minuscule 100 player cheat sheet suppose to do for you?
In my humble opinion, if the expert only gives you a top 100 overall players, that expert simply does not want to put in any real time to it. This would identify him as someone who is not digging into it deep enough. This is an expert you don't turn to for advice. There are enough fantasy football experts out there who will offer 150 players or more in their rankings, that you should look for one of them.
Another thing I will point out, and I have written an article on this before, is how they rank kickers. If they rank kickers inside of the top 150 players, you should be wary of them. If they rank kickers, any kickers, inside the top 100, run away as fast as you can.
Yes I know that kickers can get you a lot of points. I don't argue that. I realize and agree that it is important to have a good kicker on your fantasy football team. My point is not to take away from the importance of having a good kicker, but simply that your odds of picking a top kicker is nothing more than a crap shoot! Far more often than not, a kicker who is in the top ten just for kickers in one year, is not in the top ten the following year. It is actually pretty rare that they do make the top ten in consecutive seasons. If you take a kicker with the very last pick of the entire draft, you have just as much of a chance of getting a top ten kicker as the guy who drafted one in the tenth round.
You should load your roster with the best players you can in prime positions and take your kicker last. If you happen to pick a kicker who is having a bad year, you can still pick one up from the free agency. I guarantee you that there will be at least one or two owners who draft kickers earlier who will be looking for one as well. Yet there is a chance that the guy you draft in that earlier pick so you can take a kicker last might actually work out.
The fact is, the kicker is too dependent on too much that you cannot judge for him to have a good year. If his team scores too many Touchdowns, he will not get many field goal chances. If his offense is really bad, he wont get enough chances at extra points or field goals. If his team falls behind too much, they will not settle for field goals as often. The best kickers are the ones who are on teams that get close to the endzone but do not get a lot of touchdowns but are also good enough to stay in the game. They depend too much on the whole team, both offense and defense to play just the right way for them to be in the top ten in kickers. So any expert who claims kickers should be drafted early just don't truly understand the game.
If an expert expects you to pay for a membership to get his list, he is not for you. There are too many good experts out there who know what they are talking about who offer their cheat sheets for free. If they want you to pay in any way, they are more interested in making money than they are trying to help you.
If an expert tells you he knows more than any other expert, guarantees a winning draft or anything else ridiculous, he is lying. The fact is, every expert is biased! Every expert is human and being human, we are prone to have our favorite players and teams. No matter how much we study, we cannot know everything about every team and every player. It is impossible! I actually pride myself in being as unbiased as they come, but I know that even I will fall into the favorite stint now and then if only a little. This is exactly the reason I offer two different rankings here. One is my personal player rankings and the other is a comparison between several other experts. By comparing them I can find which players an expert is biased about and eliminate that ranking. Even NFL Fantasy Guide's Ultimate Rankings are not guaranteed to give you a championship, but I do believe they are the most accurate around. But of course that is me being biased. Hey, you have to expect me to lift my own site at least a little here right?
Seriously though, it does not matter whose rankings you want to trust. The draft is only one part of winning a championship anyway. But starting with a good draft can truly lift your odds much higher, so before you pick an experts rankings to follow, follow these rules in picking that expert. And that is the best advice I can give you in Fantasy Football.
12/11/2009
NFL Passer Rating
A Non-Fantasy Article
The “Passer Rating” is used throughout the NFL to judge how well a quarterback is playing. All of the major sports websites as well as the NFL itself endorse this rating system.
The NFL passer rating is a bit of an intricate formula that is based on four parts. The following is the formula.
A = ((Completions divided by Attempts, x 100) -30) x .05
B = (Yards divided by Attempts, - 3) x .25
C = (TDs divided by Attempts) x 20
D = 2.375 – (Interceptions divided by Attempts, x 25)
Passer Rating = ((A+B+C+D) / 6) x 100
Note** If any of A,B,C or D totals more than 2.375, that total should be listed as 2.375. No total is allowed to be more than 2.375. This makes the maximum possible passer rating 158.3
In looking over this rating system, I have come to a conclusion that there are two different problems with it.
One problem that is quite common is that it sometimes gives a lesser game a higher rating than a game that I believe is a little better. Just in the first eight weeks of the 2009 season for quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, there are two instances of this.
Instance #1
Week-3 -- He went 13 of 23 (56.52%) for 269 Yards, 2-TD and 0-IT
Week-4 -- He went 26 of 37 (70.27%) for 384 Yards, 2-TD and 1-IT
In week-4, Rodgers had a much better completion percentage and many more yards. The only advantage of week-2 is that he did not throw an interception. If I am a coach, I would personally rather have the stats of week-4. Not by a great measure, but I do think it is a better game. Sure he had the turnover, but the 123 yards more means he kept the ball moving, helping the defense rest and giving the team better field position. The greater completion percentage says that there were less wasted plays from the quarterback.
Passer ratings for these two weeks?
Week-3 = 126.90
Week-4 = 110.64
Instance #2
Week-6 -- He went 29 of 37 (78.38%) for 358 Yards, 2-TD and 1-IT
Week-8 -- He went 26 of 41 (63.41%) for 287 Yards, 3-TD and 0-IT
This time, in week-6 he had far more yards and a much better completion percentage. The difference in this example is that along with not throwing an interception in week-8, Rodgers also threw for one more touchdown in week-8. If the TD’s were the same I would think the better yardage and completion percentage is worth the one interception, but with the third touchdown in week-8, I feel this puts that week over the top.
Passer ratings for these two weeks?
Week-6 = 114.47
Week-8 = 108.49
So in both instances, the game that I feel is the better game by the quarterback gets the lesser passer rating. You may feel different in this but I have taken a small poll in my fantasy leagues and I found the majority agrees with my conclusion as well. Try it yourself. Show others those stats without letting them know what the passer ratings were and ask them what game is the better game by the quarterback.
The 2nd problem I find with the accepted passer rating is that there is a limit. The maximum passer rating is 158.3 and it doesn’t matter if there are five touchdowns or only three touchdowns, they still get the same rating. Since 1973 when the Passer Rating was implemented, there has been 45 games with a perfect 158.3 rating. Of course it would be too much to list them all in this article, so for now I am adding the last eight, dating back to 2006.
1) 11/30/09 – D.Brees – – – – – 18 of 23 (78.26%) 371 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT
2) 10/11/09 – E.Manning – – – – 08 of 10 (80.00%) 173 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT
3) 09/14/08 – K.Warner- – – – – 19 of 24 (79.17%) 361 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT
4) 12/20/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 16 of 20 (80.00%) 261 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT
5) 11/05/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 13 of 16 (81.25%) 209 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT
6) 10/21/07 – T.Brady – – – – – 21 of 25 (84.00%) 354 Yards, 6 TD, 0-IT
7) 09/23/06 – D.McNabb– - - - - 21 of 26 (80.77%) 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0-IT
8) 09/11/05 – B.Roethlisberger– 09 of 11 (81.82%) 218 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT
Right off the start, it is obvious to any eye that all of these games are not equal. Some are much better than others. One needs to look no further than game 1 and game 2 to see this fact. Less than 2% difference in completions but game 1 has 198 yards and 3 TDs more. How can these two games be considered equals? Yet both of them get the perfect 158.3 passer rating.
These two problems led me to come up with my own passer rating, which I have named after myself. The Schonmeier Passer Rating. After only a little work, I came up with one that is more consistent and is not limited to a maximum rating. The best part is that the formula is nowhere near as difficult to figure. Which I believe is better because it allows one to see who had the best game of all time.
The Schonmeier Rating works as follows….
A = ((TDs / ITs) x10) / Games. (if it is for only a single game than it is divided by 1)
B = (Yards / Attempts)
C = (Completions / Attempts) x 100
Schonmeier Passer Rating = A+B+C
Note* The reason part “A” is divided by games is so that this formula will stay consistent when figuring out a career rating or season rating where multiple games is figured into the equation.
With the Schonmeier Rating, those perfect games would now go in the follow order….
1) 10/21/07 – T.Brady – – – – – 21 of 25 (84.00%) 354 Yards, 6 TD, 0-IT – – – 158.16
2) 11/30/09 – D.Brees – – – – – 18 of 23 (78.26%) 371 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT – – – 144.39
3) 11/05/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 13 of 16 (81.25%) 209 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT – – – 144.31
4) 09/23/06 – D.McNabb- – - - - 21 of 26 (80.77%) 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0-IT – – – 135.42
5) 09/14/08 – K.Warner– – – – – 19 of 24 (79.17%) 361 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT – – – 124.21
6) 12/20/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 16 of 20 (80.00%) 261 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT – – – 123.05
7) 09/11/05 – B.Roethlisberger– 09 of 11 (81.82%) 218 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT – – – 121.64
8) 10/11/09 – E.Manning – – – – 08 of 10 (80.00%) 173 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT – – – 117.30
With my Schonmeier Rating, the games are not only more accurately ranked, but they are not given a limit. Can anyone honestly look at Tom Brady’s game in 2007 and compare it to Eli Manning’s game in 2009 and say they are equal to each other? Brady’s game is better in Completion Percentage, Yards and Touchdowns. Not to mention he had over twice the attempts and still kept the stats great and everyone knows it is harder to maintain a great game for a longer time. The more attempts a quarterback makes, the more chances of something going wrong to mess the game up.
I have never been able to understand why the NFL has taken to the present Passer rating when it is so faulty.
The “Passer Rating” is used throughout the NFL to judge how well a quarterback is playing. All of the major sports websites as well as the NFL itself endorse this rating system.
The NFL passer rating is a bit of an intricate formula that is based on four parts. The following is the formula.
A = ((Completions divided by Attempts, x 100) -30) x .05
B = (Yards divided by Attempts, - 3) x .25
C = (TDs divided by Attempts) x 20
D = 2.375 – (Interceptions divided by Attempts, x 25)
Passer Rating = ((A+B+C+D) / 6) x 100
Note** If any of A,B,C or D totals more than 2.375, that total should be listed as 2.375. No total is allowed to be more than 2.375. This makes the maximum possible passer rating 158.3
In looking over this rating system, I have come to a conclusion that there are two different problems with it.
One problem that is quite common is that it sometimes gives a lesser game a higher rating than a game that I believe is a little better. Just in the first eight weeks of the 2009 season for quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, there are two instances of this.
Instance #1
Week-3 -- He went 13 of 23 (56.52%) for 269 Yards, 2-TD and 0-IT
Week-4 -- He went 26 of 37 (70.27%) for 384 Yards, 2-TD and 1-IT
In week-4, Rodgers had a much better completion percentage and many more yards. The only advantage of week-2 is that he did not throw an interception. If I am a coach, I would personally rather have the stats of week-4. Not by a great measure, but I do think it is a better game. Sure he had the turnover, but the 123 yards more means he kept the ball moving, helping the defense rest and giving the team better field position. The greater completion percentage says that there were less wasted plays from the quarterback.
Passer ratings for these two weeks?
Week-3 = 126.90
Week-4 = 110.64
Instance #2
Week-6 -- He went 29 of 37 (78.38%) for 358 Yards, 2-TD and 1-IT
Week-8 -- He went 26 of 41 (63.41%) for 287 Yards, 3-TD and 0-IT
This time, in week-6 he had far more yards and a much better completion percentage. The difference in this example is that along with not throwing an interception in week-8, Rodgers also threw for one more touchdown in week-8. If the TD’s were the same I would think the better yardage and completion percentage is worth the one interception, but with the third touchdown in week-8, I feel this puts that week over the top.
Passer ratings for these two weeks?
Week-6 = 114.47
Week-8 = 108.49
So in both instances, the game that I feel is the better game by the quarterback gets the lesser passer rating. You may feel different in this but I have taken a small poll in my fantasy leagues and I found the majority agrees with my conclusion as well. Try it yourself. Show others those stats without letting them know what the passer ratings were and ask them what game is the better game by the quarterback.
The 2nd problem I find with the accepted passer rating is that there is a limit. The maximum passer rating is 158.3 and it doesn’t matter if there are five touchdowns or only three touchdowns, they still get the same rating. Since 1973 when the Passer Rating was implemented, there has been 45 games with a perfect 158.3 rating. Of course it would be too much to list them all in this article, so for now I am adding the last eight, dating back to 2006.
1) 11/30/09 – D.Brees – – – – – 18 of 23 (78.26%) 371 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT
2) 10/11/09 – E.Manning – – – – 08 of 10 (80.00%) 173 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT
3) 09/14/08 – K.Warner- – – – – 19 of 24 (79.17%) 361 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT
4) 12/20/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 16 of 20 (80.00%) 261 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT
5) 11/05/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 13 of 16 (81.25%) 209 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT
6) 10/21/07 – T.Brady – – – – – 21 of 25 (84.00%) 354 Yards, 6 TD, 0-IT
7) 09/23/06 – D.McNabb– - - - - 21 of 26 (80.77%) 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0-IT
8) 09/11/05 – B.Roethlisberger– 09 of 11 (81.82%) 218 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT
Right off the start, it is obvious to any eye that all of these games are not equal. Some are much better than others. One needs to look no further than game 1 and game 2 to see this fact. Less than 2% difference in completions but game 1 has 198 yards and 3 TDs more. How can these two games be considered equals? Yet both of them get the perfect 158.3 passer rating.
These two problems led me to come up with my own passer rating, which I have named after myself. The Schonmeier Passer Rating. After only a little work, I came up with one that is more consistent and is not limited to a maximum rating. The best part is that the formula is nowhere near as difficult to figure. Which I believe is better because it allows one to see who had the best game of all time.
The Schonmeier Rating works as follows….
A = ((TDs / ITs) x10) / Games. (if it is for only a single game than it is divided by 1)
B = (Yards / Attempts)
C = (Completions / Attempts) x 100
Schonmeier Passer Rating = A+B+C
Note* The reason part “A” is divided by games is so that this formula will stay consistent when figuring out a career rating or season rating where multiple games is figured into the equation.
With the Schonmeier Rating, those perfect games would now go in the follow order….
1) 10/21/07 – T.Brady – – – – – 21 of 25 (84.00%) 354 Yards, 6 TD, 0-IT – – – 158.16
2) 11/30/09 – D.Brees – – – – – 18 of 23 (78.26%) 371 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT – – – 144.39
3) 11/05/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 13 of 16 (81.25%) 209 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT – – – 144.31
4) 09/23/06 – D.McNabb- – - - - 21 of 26 (80.77%) 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0-IT – – – 135.42
5) 09/14/08 – K.Warner– – – – – 19 of 24 (79.17%) 361 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT – – – 124.21
6) 12/20/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 16 of 20 (80.00%) 261 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT – – – 123.05
7) 09/11/05 – B.Roethlisberger– 09 of 11 (81.82%) 218 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT – – – 121.64
8) 10/11/09 – E.Manning – – – – 08 of 10 (80.00%) 173 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT – – – 117.30
With my Schonmeier Rating, the games are not only more accurately ranked, but they are not given a limit. Can anyone honestly look at Tom Brady’s game in 2007 and compare it to Eli Manning’s game in 2009 and say they are equal to each other? Brady’s game is better in Completion Percentage, Yards and Touchdowns. Not to mention he had over twice the attempts and still kept the stats great and everyone knows it is harder to maintain a great game for a longer time. The more attempts a quarterback makes, the more chances of something going wrong to mess the game up.
I have never been able to understand why the NFL has taken to the present Passer rating when it is so faulty.
12/06/2009
Sometimes It Just Comes Down to Luck
One thing about fantasy football is that however well you draft, however great you trade and work the waivers, however many points you score, it often just comes down to plain old dumb luck! In my case it is often bad luck!
I am in a league with my brothers and friends. It is a keeper league and this is the 8th year of it. A few years ago I was the highest scoring team in the league and did not make the play-offs. Four teams of the twelve go to the play-offs and even though no team scored more points overall than my team did, I had the fifth best record. Bad teams happened to have their best weeks against me.
The next year, I had the third highest scoring team. Again, I did not make the play-offs.
This year I am in four leagues all together. Three in ESPN and one in CBS. In the CBS league, 6 teams make the play-offs. My team was the third highest scoring team and did not make the play-offs. In an ESPN free public league, I am the 2nd highest scoring team and I need to win this week while two other teams lose for my team to make the play-offs. In the league with my brothers and friends, the opposite might happen. Due to some bad luck, I am the 7th highest scoring team of the 12. Yet if one team loses and I win this week, I will make the play-offs.
My last league is a new and 2nd league that my brothers and different friends created just this year. It is the first year of a keeper league. My team is the highest scoring team and in 1st place with a 10-2 record.
So of my four teams, three of them are in the leaders of scoring points and only one of those are a lock to make the play-offs. The one team that had a bad year has the best chance (outside of the 1st place team) to make the play-offs.
However good your team is, plain old dumb luck still takes a factor. Your one bad week may come against a team you need to beat. The worst teams in the league may have their one great week when they play your team. There is never a guarantee that your team will make the play-offs. All you can do is prepare as much as you can, draft as good as you can, work the waivers as well as you can and then just pray you have half way decent luck.
I am in a league with my brothers and friends. It is a keeper league and this is the 8th year of it. A few years ago I was the highest scoring team in the league and did not make the play-offs. Four teams of the twelve go to the play-offs and even though no team scored more points overall than my team did, I had the fifth best record. Bad teams happened to have their best weeks against me.
The next year, I had the third highest scoring team. Again, I did not make the play-offs.
This year I am in four leagues all together. Three in ESPN and one in CBS. In the CBS league, 6 teams make the play-offs. My team was the third highest scoring team and did not make the play-offs. In an ESPN free public league, I am the 2nd highest scoring team and I need to win this week while two other teams lose for my team to make the play-offs. In the league with my brothers and friends, the opposite might happen. Due to some bad luck, I am the 7th highest scoring team of the 12. Yet if one team loses and I win this week, I will make the play-offs.
My last league is a new and 2nd league that my brothers and different friends created just this year. It is the first year of a keeper league. My team is the highest scoring team and in 1st place with a 10-2 record.
So of my four teams, three of them are in the leaders of scoring points and only one of those are a lock to make the play-offs. The one team that had a bad year has the best chance (outside of the 1st place team) to make the play-offs.
However good your team is, plain old dumb luck still takes a factor. Your one bad week may come against a team you need to beat. The worst teams in the league may have their one great week when they play your team. There is never a guarantee that your team will make the play-offs. All you can do is prepare as much as you can, draft as good as you can, work the waivers as well as you can and then just pray you have half way decent luck.
11/29/2009
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