The latest fad seems to be to ignore the Running Back and go right for the Receivers first in the draft. This is not necessarily the smart thing to do.
The theory is two fold. One, the NFL has turned into a passing league, so it only makes sense you want the receivers. Especially in a points per reception league. The other reasoning is that Receivers do not get hurt as often as Running backs do. This means that if you draft a WR in the first two rounds, there is less of a chance you will lose your top guys during the season.
Both of these theories have some credence to them. Both make sense to a good degree. Neither is the winning move in my opinion.
Look, if you want to play it safe, then go wide receiver in the first two rounds. The problem with that is playing safe usually ends up in second or third place at best. If your goal is to do well, then drafting receivers early is perfect for you. If your goal is to win your fantasy league, then you are better off taking a little chance.
When judging who to draft, don't focus on the position so much as the drop off of players in each position. Because it doesn't matter what league you are in, everyone will need to fill their rosters. So if there are running backs on the rosters as well as receivers, then drafting the best RBs can be just as important as drafting the best WRs. Then again, it could be the best TE you need to draft. Though that may sound like a bit of a stretch to some, its not so big a stretch as you might think. Just do stretch it so far that you draft a kicker or defense in the first few rounds. Those two positions should never be drafted until late. Defenses can be drafted in the late rounds and kickers should always be drafted in the very last round.
Lets say your league is set up more friendly to receivers and the best receivers will get 140 points in a good week. A top RB will only get 110 points we will say. Many would think this is automatic to take the top receivers because they score more. Not necessarily.
Maybe you take two top WRs and settle for two second tier RBs. Joe Shmo drafts two top RBs and takes two second tier WRs. This is assuming there are two RB spots to start. So the top two WRs will get 60 more points than the two RBs. But what if the drop off from the top WRs is only 30 points from the top tier to the second tier but with RBs it is 40 points? Suddenly the second tier RBs are getting 80 points fewer than the top tier RBs. This means the guy with two top RBs will get 20 more points than the guy with two top receivers. Its not just the total points the players can get but what kind of drop off there is from one group to the next level.
If you look at the players and you believe there are 5 top tier RBs and then the points they get significantly drops off, and you think you can still get a good receiver in the 3rd round, then it might still be worth your trouble to get two top RBs on your team.
Remember, its not about having the top scoring player on your team. Its more important to have an entire team of good point scorers. If there are only 5 or 6 RBs that look like they will get the lions share of the work load and do well, then you want to try and get your starting RBs first if you can.
There can even be a scenario where you might see there is one top TE left on the board and you think you can fill the rest of your roster with decent players in deeper positions, so it becomes worth your trouble to take a TE sort of early.
One trick I like to use in drafting is to take my lists and break them up into positions. I sort those positions and I section them off according to tiers. I highlight the RBs who are worth taking in the top tier then I do the same with the receivers and TE and QBs. Then I highlight the second tier in each position with a different color. Then the next tiers. While I am drafting, I pay attention to who is left in those top tiers and try to add them. I draft by tier as much as I do by players. This will keep you from taking a second tier receiver that you can easily get a similar level player a round later and missing out on a higher level player of another position who is the last one or two available.
So basically, to put it blunt and short, don't listen to the fads of how to draft. Fill out your team with the best overall players you can across the board, no matter the positions. Except kicker and defense. Save them for last. :o)
Showing posts with label Drafting Tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Drafting Tips. Show all posts
6/28/2010
Which Fantasy Football Rankings To Use
First I will get one thing straight. This is not an article to lift NFL Fantasy Guide's Rankings above the other experts. I create my rankings for no other reason than to help you. That is why they are free. That is also why I am not against you taking other experts advice over mine either. I'm not making money off of it anyways!
The other day I found some time to start comparing some other experts rankings for my Ultimate Player Rankings. While I was looking up other rankings however, I noticed something. It amazes me how many so called "experts" out there offer a list of the Top 100 players overall. Only 100? Seriously? The standard ten team league at ESPN has 16 roster spots on each team. That is a total of 160 players! Personally, I prefer the 12 team leagues, so that is 192 players. Then you have to consider that someone might load up on a position sooner than you and you might need to be ready to go a little deeper. What is a minuscule 100 player cheat sheet suppose to do for you?
In my humble opinion, if the expert only gives you a top 100 overall players, that expert simply does not want to put in any real time to it. This would identify him as someone who is not digging into it deep enough. This is an expert you don't turn to for advice. There are enough fantasy football experts out there who will offer 150 players or more in their rankings, that you should look for one of them.
Another thing I will point out, and I have written an article on this before, is how they rank kickers. If they rank kickers inside of the top 150 players, you should be wary of them. If they rank kickers, any kickers, inside the top 100, run away as fast as you can.
Yes I know that kickers can get you a lot of points. I don't argue that. I realize and agree that it is important to have a good kicker on your fantasy football team. My point is not to take away from the importance of having a good kicker, but simply that your odds of picking a top kicker is nothing more than a crap shoot! Far more often than not, a kicker who is in the top ten just for kickers in one year, is not in the top ten the following year. It is actually pretty rare that they do make the top ten in consecutive seasons. If you take a kicker with the very last pick of the entire draft, you have just as much of a chance of getting a top ten kicker as the guy who drafted one in the tenth round.
You should load your roster with the best players you can in prime positions and take your kicker last. If you happen to pick a kicker who is having a bad year, you can still pick one up from the free agency. I guarantee you that there will be at least one or two owners who draft kickers earlier who will be looking for one as well. Yet there is a chance that the guy you draft in that earlier pick so you can take a kicker last might actually work out.
The fact is, the kicker is too dependent on too much that you cannot judge for him to have a good year. If his team scores too many Touchdowns, he will not get many field goal chances. If his offense is really bad, he wont get enough chances at extra points or field goals. If his team falls behind too much, they will not settle for field goals as often. The best kickers are the ones who are on teams that get close to the endzone but do not get a lot of touchdowns but are also good enough to stay in the game. They depend too much on the whole team, both offense and defense to play just the right way for them to be in the top ten in kickers. So any expert who claims kickers should be drafted early just don't truly understand the game.
If an expert expects you to pay for a membership to get his list, he is not for you. There are too many good experts out there who know what they are talking about who offer their cheat sheets for free. If they want you to pay in any way, they are more interested in making money than they are trying to help you.
If an expert tells you he knows more than any other expert, guarantees a winning draft or anything else ridiculous, he is lying. The fact is, every expert is biased! Every expert is human and being human, we are prone to have our favorite players and teams. No matter how much we study, we cannot know everything about every team and every player. It is impossible! I actually pride myself in being as unbiased as they come, but I know that even I will fall into the favorite stint now and then if only a little. This is exactly the reason I offer two different rankings here. One is my personal player rankings and the other is a comparison between several other experts. By comparing them I can find which players an expert is biased about and eliminate that ranking. Even NFL Fantasy Guide's Ultimate Rankings are not guaranteed to give you a championship, but I do believe they are the most accurate around. But of course that is me being biased. Hey, you have to expect me to lift my own site at least a little here right?
Seriously though, it does not matter whose rankings you want to trust. The draft is only one part of winning a championship anyway. But starting with a good draft can truly lift your odds much higher, so before you pick an experts rankings to follow, follow these rules in picking that expert. And that is the best advice I can give you in Fantasy Football.
The other day I found some time to start comparing some other experts rankings for my Ultimate Player Rankings. While I was looking up other rankings however, I noticed something. It amazes me how many so called "experts" out there offer a list of the Top 100 players overall. Only 100? Seriously? The standard ten team league at ESPN has 16 roster spots on each team. That is a total of 160 players! Personally, I prefer the 12 team leagues, so that is 192 players. Then you have to consider that someone might load up on a position sooner than you and you might need to be ready to go a little deeper. What is a minuscule 100 player cheat sheet suppose to do for you?
In my humble opinion, if the expert only gives you a top 100 overall players, that expert simply does not want to put in any real time to it. This would identify him as someone who is not digging into it deep enough. This is an expert you don't turn to for advice. There are enough fantasy football experts out there who will offer 150 players or more in their rankings, that you should look for one of them.
Another thing I will point out, and I have written an article on this before, is how they rank kickers. If they rank kickers inside of the top 150 players, you should be wary of them. If they rank kickers, any kickers, inside the top 100, run away as fast as you can.
Yes I know that kickers can get you a lot of points. I don't argue that. I realize and agree that it is important to have a good kicker on your fantasy football team. My point is not to take away from the importance of having a good kicker, but simply that your odds of picking a top kicker is nothing more than a crap shoot! Far more often than not, a kicker who is in the top ten just for kickers in one year, is not in the top ten the following year. It is actually pretty rare that they do make the top ten in consecutive seasons. If you take a kicker with the very last pick of the entire draft, you have just as much of a chance of getting a top ten kicker as the guy who drafted one in the tenth round.
You should load your roster with the best players you can in prime positions and take your kicker last. If you happen to pick a kicker who is having a bad year, you can still pick one up from the free agency. I guarantee you that there will be at least one or two owners who draft kickers earlier who will be looking for one as well. Yet there is a chance that the guy you draft in that earlier pick so you can take a kicker last might actually work out.
The fact is, the kicker is too dependent on too much that you cannot judge for him to have a good year. If his team scores too many Touchdowns, he will not get many field goal chances. If his offense is really bad, he wont get enough chances at extra points or field goals. If his team falls behind too much, they will not settle for field goals as often. The best kickers are the ones who are on teams that get close to the endzone but do not get a lot of touchdowns but are also good enough to stay in the game. They depend too much on the whole team, both offense and defense to play just the right way for them to be in the top ten in kickers. So any expert who claims kickers should be drafted early just don't truly understand the game.
If an expert expects you to pay for a membership to get his list, he is not for you. There are too many good experts out there who know what they are talking about who offer their cheat sheets for free. If they want you to pay in any way, they are more interested in making money than they are trying to help you.
If an expert tells you he knows more than any other expert, guarantees a winning draft or anything else ridiculous, he is lying. The fact is, every expert is biased! Every expert is human and being human, we are prone to have our favorite players and teams. No matter how much we study, we cannot know everything about every team and every player. It is impossible! I actually pride myself in being as unbiased as they come, but I know that even I will fall into the favorite stint now and then if only a little. This is exactly the reason I offer two different rankings here. One is my personal player rankings and the other is a comparison between several other experts. By comparing them I can find which players an expert is biased about and eliminate that ranking. Even NFL Fantasy Guide's Ultimate Rankings are not guaranteed to give you a championship, but I do believe they are the most accurate around. But of course that is me being biased. Hey, you have to expect me to lift my own site at least a little here right?
Seriously though, it does not matter whose rankings you want to trust. The draft is only one part of winning a championship anyway. But starting with a good draft can truly lift your odds much higher, so before you pick an experts rankings to follow, follow these rules in picking that expert. And that is the best advice I can give you in Fantasy Football.
7/14/2009
A Theory on Keeper Leagues Players Rankings
The Keeper leagues are becoming more and more popular in Fantasy Football. In case you are some what new to Fantasy Football and do not know what a Keeper League is, let me explain.
Of course, all Keeper Leagues have their own set of rules, but the basic story line is that after each season, each owner gets to retain the right to a set number of players for the next season. For example, I am in a Keeper League with my brothers and some friends. In our rules, we can keep two players. Having Ladanian Tomlinson and Brandon Jacobs on my team, I will very likely make those two players my keepers. So when we draft our new teams for the new season, the draft will begin with those two players already on my roster.
With the Keeper Leagues becoming more and more popular, I am seeing more and more sites offer two sets of rankings. Keeper Rankings and ReDraft rankings. The "ReDraft" rankings being for leagues that start fresh and completely do a whole new draft every year. I was considering this fact when a thought occurred to me. How much of a difference does the Keeper Draft make in a players rankings?
Most people will automatically think it would make a lot of difference. Older players for instance who are winding down in their careers would not rank as high as many younger players who are still to reach their potential. I would urge one to slow down, take a breath, and think again.
In reality, there are only two areas where the Keeper rankings would... or should differ from redraft Player Rankings. Rookie Running Backs and the top 24 to 36 players. Maybe more, depending on how many players a team is allowed to keep in their league. In my leagues case, with twelve teams being allowed to keep 2 players, only the top 24 players will be effected in the rankings.
If you are looking at a sites Cheat Sheets and find that a middle ranged player who is not a rookie running back is effected, find another sites cheatsheets... preferably mine... because whoever made those rankings up did not truly think it through.
If a league of ten teams allows two keepers, why would the 25th ranked player change from one list to another? You are not going to look to keep him. The only players who will be kept are the top 20 players. Sure there is the chance that a player who was drafted later than 20th might end up a star and be a keeper, in fact it is probable, but nobody knows who that will be. When you are drafting, you have your idea of the top 20 players and in your mind, those are the keepers.
As for rookie Running Backs, they are effected because they have a higher ceiling of growth and are more possible to become a star player who is worth keeping. The odds of a rookie Quarterback or rookie Wide Receiver becoming a keeper is highly unlikely.
So other than the top 20 to 30 stars and maybe 5 rookie runningbacks, nobody else should be effected by the keeper rankings. That is only 25 to 35 players out of 200 to 300 players that will be drafted.
If you think even deeper, you will find that list slims down even more. Any players with 2 to 10 years of experience should not be effected much. In this case, the only players who will jump around in the rankings, in the top 35 players, are the older players. For instance, lets say you are extremely high on Brett Favre if he plays for Minnesota. I would tell you right now, do not draft him in the top twenty, but lets say you have him in the top 30 and your league allows three keepers. In such a case, you might consider dropping Favre down some because there is a high probability that he could retire (I mean for good) and you will lose him anyway. So why not draft a younger player who might be worth keeping for the next coming season? So far, in my opinion, there is not a player in the top 30 who I think is in the last year of his stardom. So in my opinion, I would not even bother looking for a difference in the rankings from keeper or redraft rankings.
This year the only players I would adjust between the two are the rookie running backs. In a redraft, I would not consider taking them too high, but if you are in a keeper league, they might be worth taking earlier because one could turn out to be the next big star and you would want him on your team to keep.
Personally, I love Keeper Leagues in Fantasy Football. However, I fail to see much of an importance in worrying about the differences in Fantasy Football Cheatsheet rankings. The only ones I truly look at are the Rookie Runningbacks who are suppose to start the season as the go to guy on their respective team.
Of course, all Keeper Leagues have their own set of rules, but the basic story line is that after each season, each owner gets to retain the right to a set number of players for the next season. For example, I am in a Keeper League with my brothers and some friends. In our rules, we can keep two players. Having Ladanian Tomlinson and Brandon Jacobs on my team, I will very likely make those two players my keepers. So when we draft our new teams for the new season, the draft will begin with those two players already on my roster.
With the Keeper Leagues becoming more and more popular, I am seeing more and more sites offer two sets of rankings. Keeper Rankings and ReDraft rankings. The "ReDraft" rankings being for leagues that start fresh and completely do a whole new draft every year. I was considering this fact when a thought occurred to me. How much of a difference does the Keeper Draft make in a players rankings?
Most people will automatically think it would make a lot of difference. Older players for instance who are winding down in their careers would not rank as high as many younger players who are still to reach their potential. I would urge one to slow down, take a breath, and think again.
In reality, there are only two areas where the Keeper rankings would... or should differ from redraft Player Rankings. Rookie Running Backs and the top 24 to 36 players. Maybe more, depending on how many players a team is allowed to keep in their league. In my leagues case, with twelve teams being allowed to keep 2 players, only the top 24 players will be effected in the rankings.
If you are looking at a sites Cheat Sheets and find that a middle ranged player who is not a rookie running back is effected, find another sites cheatsheets... preferably mine... because whoever made those rankings up did not truly think it through.
If a league of ten teams allows two keepers, why would the 25th ranked player change from one list to another? You are not going to look to keep him. The only players who will be kept are the top 20 players. Sure there is the chance that a player who was drafted later than 20th might end up a star and be a keeper, in fact it is probable, but nobody knows who that will be. When you are drafting, you have your idea of the top 20 players and in your mind, those are the keepers.
As for rookie Running Backs, they are effected because they have a higher ceiling of growth and are more possible to become a star player who is worth keeping. The odds of a rookie Quarterback or rookie Wide Receiver becoming a keeper is highly unlikely.
So other than the top 20 to 30 stars and maybe 5 rookie runningbacks, nobody else should be effected by the keeper rankings. That is only 25 to 35 players out of 200 to 300 players that will be drafted.
If you think even deeper, you will find that list slims down even more. Any players with 2 to 10 years of experience should not be effected much. In this case, the only players who will jump around in the rankings, in the top 35 players, are the older players. For instance, lets say you are extremely high on Brett Favre if he plays for Minnesota. I would tell you right now, do not draft him in the top twenty, but lets say you have him in the top 30 and your league allows three keepers. In such a case, you might consider dropping Favre down some because there is a high probability that he could retire (I mean for good) and you will lose him anyway. So why not draft a younger player who might be worth keeping for the next coming season? So far, in my opinion, there is not a player in the top 30 who I think is in the last year of his stardom. So in my opinion, I would not even bother looking for a difference in the rankings from keeper or redraft rankings.
This year the only players I would adjust between the two are the rookie running backs. In a redraft, I would not consider taking them too high, but if you are in a keeper league, they might be worth taking earlier because one could turn out to be the next big star and you would want him on your team to keep.
Personally, I love Keeper Leagues in Fantasy Football. However, I fail to see much of an importance in worrying about the differences in Fantasy Football Cheatsheet rankings. The only ones I truly look at are the Rookie Runningbacks who are suppose to start the season as the go to guy on their respective team.
7/05/2009
Which Player Ranks #1 in Fantasy Football?
Probably about 97% of the Fantasy Football fans out there would automatically say Adrian Peterson. The Running Back from Minnesota is a fantasy monster and possibly the most exciting player in the NFL to watch. So why write this article right? Well let's dig just a little further if you will...
In 2008 Adrian Peterson ran for an amazing 1,760 yards and 10 touchdowns. As great as that is, I have to ask myself, will he do it again? Many would say "of course" but I have to wonder. As great as the magical Barry Sanders was, his seasons ranged from 1300 to 2000 yards. Usually he placed right around 1500 yards.
Since the turn of the century, only 4 running backs have broken the 1500 yard mark in consecutive seasons. Of those three, only Larry Johnson reached the 1700 mark two seasons in a row and his second came at the expense of 416 carries. Johnson was never the dominant running back again after that season and I doubt Minnesota will give Peterson 400+ carries. In fact, even Barry Sanders never broke the 1700 mark in consecutive seasons. So if history shows anything, the odds are Adrian Peterson will not repeat his 2008 performance. It is only logical that he should drop down at least to around 1600 in yards.
In Adrian Peterson's two seasons so far, he has had 12 and 10 touchdowns. This shows that they do not depend heavily on him scoring when they are in the red-zone. I would expect him to stay in the same range in 2009. If Brett Favre joins the team, you can bet he will pass for more TD's and that could easily take away more chances for Peterson to score. So far, I would list him at 1600 yards and 11 touchdowns for his projections.
The one thing that really hurts Peterson is his lack of production in the passing game. In 2008 he pulled in only 21 passes for 125 yards and no TD's. To make things worse, he fumbled the ball 9 times, losing 4 of them.
Following the standard format in fantasy football scoring.... 1 pt for every ten yards rushing and receiving and 6 pts for each TD. Peterson's projections would add up to about 238 points. Then the four fumbles at a loss of 2 points each would make it about 230 even.
Now lets look at other players.
LaDainian Tomlinson had only 1,110 yards and 11 TD in 2008. He also had 426 receiving yards, another TD and no lost fumbles. That adds up to 225 points. Only 5 points shy of Adrian Peterson's projections for 2009 and that was a bad year for Tomlinson. Don't forget that LaDainian Tomlinson fought turf toe all last season and is reportedly healthy now. If he returns even close to his usual self his numbers would look more like .... 1450 yards, 15 TD, 450 rec yards and 3 TD with one fumble. Those numbers would add up to a whopping 296 fantasy points. personally, I would rather bet that Tomlinson will return back to his old self over Peterson repeating 2008. If both happens? Tomlinson is still worth more.
Matt Forte, a rookie in 2008 ran for 1,238 yards, 8 TD, 477 Rec Yards and 4 rec TD with one fumble. Those numbers would add up to 240 points. With Cutler now manning the QB spot rather than Kyle Orton, I am expecting his numbers to rise just a pinch. Where as Favre would hurt Peterson, Cutler would help Forte because Forte is utilized in the passing game so much. As a rookie he had 63 catches.
Maurice Jones-Drew in 2008 had 824 yards, 12 TD's, 565 rec yards and 2 rec TD with 2 Fumbles. Those numbers would add up to 218 fantasy points. Now consider the fact that Fred Taylor will no longer be sharing the work load with him. So long as he stays healthy, his numbers will undoubtedly go up in 2009 when he takes on the full RB load. Right now I am projecting him to get around 1200 yds - 13 TD - 500 yds - 1 TD with 3 fumbles in 2009. A total of 248 fantasy points.
Myself, I would actually place Peterson fourth, behind LT, Forte and Jones-Drew. I can understand not trusting the unknowns in Forte and Jones-Drew, so I would not blame anyone for placing Peterson above them. However, unless word comes out they plan on using him in the pass game a lot more, I do believe it would be a mistake to draft him before Tomlinson in the 2009 Fantasy Football Draft.
In 2008 Adrian Peterson ran for an amazing 1,760 yards and 10 touchdowns. As great as that is, I have to ask myself, will he do it again? Many would say "of course" but I have to wonder. As great as the magical Barry Sanders was, his seasons ranged from 1300 to 2000 yards. Usually he placed right around 1500 yards.
Since the turn of the century, only 4 running backs have broken the 1500 yard mark in consecutive seasons. Of those three, only Larry Johnson reached the 1700 mark two seasons in a row and his second came at the expense of 416 carries. Johnson was never the dominant running back again after that season and I doubt Minnesota will give Peterson 400+ carries. In fact, even Barry Sanders never broke the 1700 mark in consecutive seasons. So if history shows anything, the odds are Adrian Peterson will not repeat his 2008 performance. It is only logical that he should drop down at least to around 1600 in yards.
In Adrian Peterson's two seasons so far, he has had 12 and 10 touchdowns. This shows that they do not depend heavily on him scoring when they are in the red-zone. I would expect him to stay in the same range in 2009. If Brett Favre joins the team, you can bet he will pass for more TD's and that could easily take away more chances for Peterson to score. So far, I would list him at 1600 yards and 11 touchdowns for his projections.
The one thing that really hurts Peterson is his lack of production in the passing game. In 2008 he pulled in only 21 passes for 125 yards and no TD's. To make things worse, he fumbled the ball 9 times, losing 4 of them.
Following the standard format in fantasy football scoring.... 1 pt for every ten yards rushing and receiving and 6 pts for each TD. Peterson's projections would add up to about 238 points. Then the four fumbles at a loss of 2 points each would make it about 230 even.
Now lets look at other players.
LaDainian Tomlinson had only 1,110 yards and 11 TD in 2008. He also had 426 receiving yards, another TD and no lost fumbles. That adds up to 225 points. Only 5 points shy of Adrian Peterson's projections for 2009 and that was a bad year for Tomlinson. Don't forget that LaDainian Tomlinson fought turf toe all last season and is reportedly healthy now. If he returns even close to his usual self his numbers would look more like .... 1450 yards, 15 TD, 450 rec yards and 3 TD with one fumble. Those numbers would add up to a whopping 296 fantasy points. personally, I would rather bet that Tomlinson will return back to his old self over Peterson repeating 2008. If both happens? Tomlinson is still worth more.
Matt Forte, a rookie in 2008 ran for 1,238 yards, 8 TD, 477 Rec Yards and 4 rec TD with one fumble. Those numbers would add up to 240 points. With Cutler now manning the QB spot rather than Kyle Orton, I am expecting his numbers to rise just a pinch. Where as Favre would hurt Peterson, Cutler would help Forte because Forte is utilized in the passing game so much. As a rookie he had 63 catches.
Maurice Jones-Drew in 2008 had 824 yards, 12 TD's, 565 rec yards and 2 rec TD with 2 Fumbles. Those numbers would add up to 218 fantasy points. Now consider the fact that Fred Taylor will no longer be sharing the work load with him. So long as he stays healthy, his numbers will undoubtedly go up in 2009 when he takes on the full RB load. Right now I am projecting him to get around 1200 yds - 13 TD - 500 yds - 1 TD with 3 fumbles in 2009. A total of 248 fantasy points.
Myself, I would actually place Peterson fourth, behind LT, Forte and Jones-Drew. I can understand not trusting the unknowns in Forte and Jones-Drew, so I would not blame anyone for placing Peterson above them. However, unless word comes out they plan on using him in the pass game a lot more, I do believe it would be a mistake to draft him before Tomlinson in the 2009 Fantasy Football Draft.
6/18/2009
Fantasy Football Drafting: Basic Rules to Follow
Every year I play fantasy football, it never seizes to amaze me how so many owners will ignore the basic rules of how to draft. Sometimes they get lucky and it works out for them but far more often it comes back to bite them. Yet they will ignore the same rules the next season. The fact is, along with knowing what you are doing, you need some good luck as well to win your league. Nobody is good enough to guarantee a victory. But the smart owners will set themselves up for the best odds of winning. I will help you do just that...
1) Kickers - Do NOT waste a pick on your kicker until your last pick of the draft!
In the last four years of Fantasy Football, there have been a total of 27 different kickers who have ended the season in the top 10 for kickers. Only one kicker has made it in the top 10 three of those four seasons. Jason Elam ranked 6th, 10th and 9th. Only 8 times in the 81 chances during those four seasons has a kicker made the top 10 in two consecutive seasons. In the last four years, only once has a kicker ranked in the top 5 in two consecutive seasons. Simply put, picking a kicker is no better than a crap shoot. You are best off to wait until the last round then take your kicker. Once the season gets going, you can dump him and take a kicker who is doing well. Likely, if you draft a kicker early, you will still end up doing this anyway.
2) Save the defense until at least the double digit rounds.
My brother Jason believes to save the defense until the last 2 or 3 rounds and I shouldn't argue with him, he has won more championships than anyone I know, but if you at least wait until the 11th round I would not chastise you. The fact is, there are too many factors that fall into play on a defense doing well. The best defense in the NFL might not look good if the offense is horrible and keeps that defense on the field too much. A good defense depends on all eleven players playing well. If one has a bad season, the whole defense can suffer. Also there are often good defenses that come out of the woodwork that will be picked up in free agency.
3) Draft according to numbers and logic. Leave your heart at home.
Too often Fantasy Football team owners will draft players from their favorite teams. Though this may make your viewing your favorite team on TV more enjoyable, it is usually not a good choice for your fantasy team. Drafting Matthew Stafford in the early rounds just because you are a Lions fan would be foolish (unless you are in a keeper league). Draft the best players who put up the best numbers, whether they are on your favorite team or your most hated team.
4) Show up at your draft prepared.
I know that many of you football gurus think you know it all in your head. Trust me, there is one of you in every league. You also become the most hated fantasy team owner during every draft. Not because others are jealous of your football knowledge, but because you end up holding up the draft... every time! However much you think you know, you wont remember the names to 40 running backs, 20 quarterbacks, 60 wide receivers, 20 tight ends and 10 to 20 kickers. You definitely will not be able to remember off the top of your head which players were taken and which ones are still available as you get into the mid to later rounds. Nobody wants to have to let you look at their lists or see their magazines just to get your pick over with. Make one simple list. Print one off the Internet if that's all you do. Just show up somewhat prepared.
5) Keep track of the injury lists.
There is very little worse than drafting a player who you find out afterwards is injured. The day of your draft, go on-line and print off or make notes of injured players you even might draft.
6) Pay attention to bye-weeks.
Believe it or not, this is one of the most common mistakes made by even the most veteran of fantasy football owners. As much as I hate to admit it, I have made the same mistake in recent years. It really lets the wind out of your sails when you get done drafting and suddenly realize that three of your four running backs have the same bye week. Or that both your quarterbacks have the same week off. Then you are forced to look for a trade by that week just so you can fill a complete starting roster. Usually other owners recognize this and take advantage of the situation. It is worse when you cant make a trade and are forced to leave an empty spot or drop the player for a free agent who is not as good.
7) Wait until after the last preseason game is over before you draft.
I understand that this is a hard rule to follow. Sometimes if you are in a league with friends you cant all get together unless you draft earlier. Just keep this in mind. I remember one year we were drafting while we were watching the last week of preseason football. One gentleman was all excited that he got lucky and drew the first pick of the draft. Right away he shouted out, Michael Vick! I have never seen anyone so happy to get the player they wanted as he was getting Vick that day. Half way through the draft, we saw Vick go down with an injury and was out for the season. Imagine how he felt, finishing the draft knowing he was already in a huge hole with his best player down.
8) Have fun!
Remember, when all is said and done, this is just a game. If you make one of these mistakes and it bites you, don't worry. You would be surprised what you can do in trading and waivers. It is Fantasy Football and it is meant to be fun. Keep it that way.
1) Kickers - Do NOT waste a pick on your kicker until your last pick of the draft!
In the last four years of Fantasy Football, there have been a total of 27 different kickers who have ended the season in the top 10 for kickers. Only one kicker has made it in the top 10 three of those four seasons. Jason Elam ranked 6th, 10th and 9th. Only 8 times in the 81 chances during those four seasons has a kicker made the top 10 in two consecutive seasons. In the last four years, only once has a kicker ranked in the top 5 in two consecutive seasons. Simply put, picking a kicker is no better than a crap shoot. You are best off to wait until the last round then take your kicker. Once the season gets going, you can dump him and take a kicker who is doing well. Likely, if you draft a kicker early, you will still end up doing this anyway.
2) Save the defense until at least the double digit rounds.
My brother Jason believes to save the defense until the last 2 or 3 rounds and I shouldn't argue with him, he has won more championships than anyone I know, but if you at least wait until the 11th round I would not chastise you. The fact is, there are too many factors that fall into play on a defense doing well. The best defense in the NFL might not look good if the offense is horrible and keeps that defense on the field too much. A good defense depends on all eleven players playing well. If one has a bad season, the whole defense can suffer. Also there are often good defenses that come out of the woodwork that will be picked up in free agency.
3) Draft according to numbers and logic. Leave your heart at home.
Too often Fantasy Football team owners will draft players from their favorite teams. Though this may make your viewing your favorite team on TV more enjoyable, it is usually not a good choice for your fantasy team. Drafting Matthew Stafford in the early rounds just because you are a Lions fan would be foolish (unless you are in a keeper league). Draft the best players who put up the best numbers, whether they are on your favorite team or your most hated team.
4) Show up at your draft prepared.
I know that many of you football gurus think you know it all in your head. Trust me, there is one of you in every league. You also become the most hated fantasy team owner during every draft. Not because others are jealous of your football knowledge, but because you end up holding up the draft... every time! However much you think you know, you wont remember the names to 40 running backs, 20 quarterbacks, 60 wide receivers, 20 tight ends and 10 to 20 kickers. You definitely will not be able to remember off the top of your head which players were taken and which ones are still available as you get into the mid to later rounds. Nobody wants to have to let you look at their lists or see their magazines just to get your pick over with. Make one simple list. Print one off the Internet if that's all you do. Just show up somewhat prepared.
5) Keep track of the injury lists.
There is very little worse than drafting a player who you find out afterwards is injured. The day of your draft, go on-line and print off or make notes of injured players you even might draft.
6) Pay attention to bye-weeks.
Believe it or not, this is one of the most common mistakes made by even the most veteran of fantasy football owners. As much as I hate to admit it, I have made the same mistake in recent years. It really lets the wind out of your sails when you get done drafting and suddenly realize that three of your four running backs have the same bye week. Or that both your quarterbacks have the same week off. Then you are forced to look for a trade by that week just so you can fill a complete starting roster. Usually other owners recognize this and take advantage of the situation. It is worse when you cant make a trade and are forced to leave an empty spot or drop the player for a free agent who is not as good.
7) Wait until after the last preseason game is over before you draft.
I understand that this is a hard rule to follow. Sometimes if you are in a league with friends you cant all get together unless you draft earlier. Just keep this in mind. I remember one year we were drafting while we were watching the last week of preseason football. One gentleman was all excited that he got lucky and drew the first pick of the draft. Right away he shouted out, Michael Vick! I have never seen anyone so happy to get the player they wanted as he was getting Vick that day. Half way through the draft, we saw Vick go down with an injury and was out for the season. Imagine how he felt, finishing the draft knowing he was already in a huge hole with his best player down.
8) Have fun!
Remember, when all is said and done, this is just a game. If you make one of these mistakes and it bites you, don't worry. You would be surprised what you can do in trading and waivers. It is Fantasy Football and it is meant to be fun. Keep it that way.
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