Which Player Ranks #1 in Fantasy Football?

Probably about 97% of the Fantasy Football fans out there would automatically say Adrian Peterson. The Running Back from Minnesota is a fantasy monster and possibly the most exciting player in the NFL to watch. So why write this article right? Well let's dig just a little further if you will...

In 2008 Adrian Peterson ran for an amazing 1,760 yards and 10 touchdowns. As great as that is, I have to ask myself, will he do it again? Many would say "of course" but I have to wonder. As great as the magical Barry Sanders was, his seasons ranged from 1300 to 2000 yards. Usually he placed right around 1500 yards.

Since the turn of the century, only 4 running backs have broken the 1500 yard mark in consecutive seasons. Of those three, only Larry Johnson reached the 1700 mark two seasons in a row and his second came at the expense of 416 carries. Johnson was never the dominant running back again after that season and I doubt Minnesota will give Peterson 400+ carries. In fact, even Barry Sanders never broke the 1700 mark in consecutive seasons. So if history shows anything, the odds are Adrian Peterson will not repeat his 2008 performance. It is only logical that he should drop down at least to around 1600 in yards.

In Adrian Peterson's two seasons so far, he has had 12 and 10 touchdowns. This shows that they do not depend heavily on him scoring when they are in the red-zone. I would expect him to stay in the same range in 2009. If Brett Favre joins the team, you can bet he will pass for more TD's and that could easily take away more chances for Peterson to score. So far, I would list him at 1600 yards and 11 touchdowns for his projections.

The one thing that really hurts Peterson is his lack of production in the passing game. In 2008 he pulled in only 21 passes for 125 yards and no TD's. To make things worse, he fumbled the ball 9 times, losing 4 of them.

Following the standard format in fantasy football scoring.... 1 pt for every ten yards rushing and receiving and 6 pts for each TD. Peterson's projections would add up to about 238 points. Then the four fumbles at a loss of 2 points each would make it about 230 even.

Now lets look at other players.

LaDainian Tomlinson had only 1,110 yards and 11 TD in 2008. He also had 426 receiving yards, another TD and no lost fumbles. That adds up to 225 points. Only 5 points shy of Adrian Peterson's projections for 2009 and that was a bad year for Tomlinson. Don't forget that LaDainian Tomlinson fought turf toe all last season and is reportedly healthy now. If he returns even close to his usual self his numbers would look more like .... 1450 yards, 15 TD, 450 rec yards and 3 TD with one fumble. Those numbers would add up to a whopping 296 fantasy points. personally, I would rather bet that Tomlinson will return back to his old self over Peterson repeating 2008. If both happens? Tomlinson is still worth more.

Matt Forte, a rookie in 2008 ran for 1,238 yards, 8 TD, 477 Rec Yards and 4 rec TD with one fumble. Those numbers would add up to 240 points. With Cutler now manning the QB spot rather than Kyle Orton, I am expecting his numbers to rise just a pinch. Where as Favre would hurt Peterson, Cutler would help Forte because Forte is utilized in the passing game so much. As a rookie he had 63 catches.

Maurice Jones-Drew in 2008 had 824 yards, 12 TD's, 565 rec yards and 2 rec TD with 2 Fumbles. Those numbers would add up to 218 fantasy points. Now consider the fact that Fred Taylor will no longer be sharing the work load with him. So long as he stays healthy, his numbers will undoubtedly go up in 2009 when he takes on the full RB load. Right now I am projecting him to get around 1200 yds - 13 TD - 500 yds - 1 TD with 3 fumbles in 2009. A total of 248 fantasy points.

Myself, I would actually place Peterson fourth, behind LT, Forte and Jones-Drew. I can understand not trusting the unknowns in Forte and Jones-Drew, so I would not blame anyone for placing Peterson above them. However, unless word comes out they plan on using him in the pass game a lot more, I do believe it would be a mistake to draft him before Tomlinson in the 2009 Fantasy Football Draft.