Dont Trust the Latest Draftng Fads

The latest fad seems to be to ignore the Running Back and go right for the Receivers first in the draft. This is not necessarily the smart thing to do.

The theory is two fold. One, the NFL has turned into a passing league, so it only makes sense you want the receivers. Especially in a points per reception league. The other reasoning is that Receivers do not get hurt as often as Running backs do. This means that if you draft a WR in the first two rounds, there is less of a chance you will lose your top guys during the season.

Both of these theories have some credence to them. Both make sense to a good degree. Neither is the winning move in my opinion.

Look, if you want to play it safe, then go wide receiver in the first two rounds. The problem with that is playing safe usually ends up in second or third place at best. If your goal is to do well, then drafting receivers early is perfect for you. If your goal is to win your fantasy league, then you are better off taking a little chance.

When judging who to draft, don't focus on the position so much as the drop off of players in each position.  Because it doesn't matter what league you are in, everyone will need to fill their rosters. So if there are running backs on the rosters as well as receivers, then drafting the best RBs can be just as important as drafting the best WRs. Then again, it could be the best TE you need to draft. Though that may sound like a bit of a stretch to some, its not so big a stretch as you might think. Just do stretch it so far that you draft a kicker or defense in the first few rounds.  Those two positions should never be drafted until late.  Defenses can be drafted in the late rounds and kickers should always be drafted in the very last round.

Lets say your league is set up more friendly to receivers and the best receivers will get 140 points in a good week. A top RB will only get 110 points we will say. Many would think this is automatic to take the top receivers because they score more.  Not necessarily.

Maybe you take two top WRs and settle for two second tier RBs. Joe Shmo drafts two top RBs and takes two second tier WRs. This is assuming there are two RB spots to start.  So the top two WRs will get 60 more points than the two RBs. But what if the drop off from the top WRs is only 30 points from the top tier to the second tier but with RBs it is 40 points?  Suddenly the second tier RBs are getting 80 points fewer than the top tier RBs. This means the guy with two top RBs will get 20 more points than the guy with two top receivers.  Its not just the total points the players can get but what kind of drop off there is from one group to the next level.

If you look at the players and you believe there are 5 top tier RBs and then the points they get significantly drops off, and you think you can still get a good receiver in the 3rd round, then it might still be worth your trouble to get two top RBs on your team.

Remember, its not about having the top scoring player on your team. Its more important to have an entire team of good point scorers.  If there are only 5 or 6 RBs that look like they will get the lions share of the work load and do well, then you want to try and get your starting RBs first if you can. 

There can even be a scenario where you might see there is one top TE left on the board and you think you can fill the rest of your roster with decent players in deeper positions, so it becomes worth your trouble to take a TE sort of early.

One trick I like to use in drafting is to take my lists and break them up into positions. I sort those positions and I section them off according to tiers.  I highlight the RBs who are worth taking in the top tier then I do the same with the receivers and TE and QBs. Then I highlight the second tier in each position with a different color. Then the next tiers. While I am drafting, I pay attention to who is left in those top tiers and try to add them. I draft by tier as much as I do by players. This will keep you from taking a second tier receiver that you can easily get a similar level player a round later and missing out on a higher level player of another position who is the last one or two available.

So basically, to put it blunt and short, don't listen to the fads of how to draft.  Fill out your team with the best overall players you can across the board, no matter the positions. Except kicker and defense.  Save them for last.  :o)