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Ultimate Top 200 Fantasy Players. . . . . Updated 09/04/2010


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Fantasy Football Draft: Basic Rules to Follow

Which Player Ranks #1 in Fantasy Football?

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Fantasy Football Season Waivers and Trades

The NFL Preseason Cannot Be Trusted

The 2nd Worst Week in Football

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12/11/2009

NFL Passer Rating

A Non-Fantasy Article

The “Passer Rating” is used throughout the NFL to judge how well a quarterback is playing. All of the major sports websites as well as the NFL itself endorse this rating system.

The NFL passer rating is a bit of an intricate formula that is based on four parts. The following is the formula.

A = ((Completions divided by Attempts, x 100) -30) x .05
B = (Yards divided by Attempts, - 3) x .25
C = (TDs divided by Attempts) x 20
D = 2.375 – (Interceptions divided by Attempts, x 25)

Passer Rating = ((A+B+C+D) / 6) x 100
Note** If any of A,B,C or D totals more than 2.375, that total should be listed as 2.375. No total is allowed to be more than 2.375. This makes the maximum possible passer rating 158.3

In looking over this rating system, I have come to a conclusion that there are two different problems with it.

One problem that is quite common is that it sometimes gives a lesser game a higher rating than a game that I believe is a little better. Just in the first eight weeks of the 2009 season for quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, there are two instances of this.

Instance #1
Week-3 -- He went 13 of 23 (56.52%) for 269 Yards, 2-TD and 0-IT
Week-4 -- He went 26 of 37 (70.27%) for 384 Yards, 2-TD and 1-IT

In week-4, Rodgers had a much better completion percentage and many more yards. The only advantage of week-2 is that he did not throw an interception. If I am a coach, I would personally rather have the stats of week-4. Not by a great measure, but I do think it is a better game. Sure he had the turnover, but the 123 yards more means he kept the ball moving, helping the defense rest and giving the team better field position. The greater completion percentage says that there were less wasted plays from the quarterback.

Passer ratings for these two weeks?
Week-3 = 126.90
Week-4 = 110.64

Instance #2
Week-6 -- He went 29 of 37 (78.38%) for 358 Yards, 2-TD and 1-IT
Week-8 -- He went 26 of 41 (63.41%) for 287 Yards, 3-TD and 0-IT

This time, in week-6 he had far more yards and a much better completion percentage. The difference in this example is that along with not throwing an interception in week-8, Rodgers also threw for one more touchdown in week-8. If the TD’s were the same I would think the better yardage and completion percentage is worth the one interception, but with the third touchdown in week-8, I feel this puts that week over the top.

Passer ratings for these two weeks?
Week-6 = 114.47
Week-8 = 108.49

So in both instances, the game that I feel is the better game by the quarterback gets the lesser passer rating. You may feel different in this but I have taken a small poll in my fantasy leagues and I found the majority agrees with my conclusion as well. Try it yourself. Show others those stats without letting them know what the passer ratings were and ask them what game is the better game by the quarterback.

The 2nd problem I find with the accepted passer rating is that there is a limit. The maximum passer rating is 158.3 and it doesn’t matter if there are five touchdowns or only three touchdowns, they still get the same rating. Since 1973 when the Passer Rating was implemented, there has been 45 games with a perfect 158.3 rating. Of course it would be too much to list them all in this article, so for now I am adding the last eight, dating back to 2006.

1) 11/30/09 – D.Brees – – – – – 18 of 23 (78.26%) 371 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT
2) 10/11/09 – E.Manning – – – – 08 of 10 (80.00%) 173 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT
3) 09/14/08 – K.Warner- – – – – 19 of 24 (79.17%) 361 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT
4) 12/20/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 16 of 20 (80.00%) 261 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT
5) 11/05/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 13 of 16 (81.25%) 209 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT
6) 10/21/07 – T.Brady – – – – – 21 of 25 (84.00%) 354 Yards, 6 TD, 0-IT
7) 09/23/06 – D.McNabb– - - - - 21 of 26 (80.77%) 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0-IT
8) 09/11/05 – B.Roethlisberger– 09 of 11 (81.82%) 218 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT

Right off the start, it is obvious to any eye that all of these games are not equal. Some are much better than others. One needs to look no further than game 1 and game 2 to see this fact. Less than 2% difference in completions but game 1 has 198 yards and 3 TDs more. How can these two games be considered equals? Yet both of them get the perfect 158.3 passer rating.

These two problems led me to come up with my own passer rating, which I have named after myself. The Schonmeier Passer Rating. After only a little work, I came up with one that is more consistent and is not limited to a maximum rating. The best part is that the formula is nowhere near as difficult to figure. Which I believe is better because it allows one to see who had the best game of all time.

The Schonmeier Rating works as follows….

A = ((TDs / ITs) x10) / Games. (if it is for only a single game than it is divided by 1)
B = (Yards / Attempts)
C = (Completions / Attempts) x 100

Schonmeier Passer Rating = A+B+C

Note* The reason part “A” is divided by games is so that this formula will stay consistent when figuring out a career rating or season rating where multiple games is figured into the equation.

With the Schonmeier Rating, those perfect games would now go in the follow order….

1) 10/21/07 – T.Brady – – – – – 21 of 25 (84.00%) 354 Yards, 6 TD, 0-IT – – – 158.16
2) 11/30/09 – D.Brees – – – – – 18 of 23 (78.26%) 371 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT – – – 144.39
3) 11/05/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 13 of 16 (81.25%) 209 Yards, 5 TD, 0-IT – – – 144.31
4) 09/23/06 – D.McNabb- – - - - 21 of 26 (80.77%) 381 Yards, 4 TD, 0-IT – – – 135.42
5) 09/14/08 – K.Warner– – – – – 19 of 24 (79.17%) 361 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT – – – 124.21
6) 12/20/07 – B.Roethlisberger– 16 of 20 (80.00%) 261 Yards, 3 TD, 0-IT – – – 123.05
7) 09/11/05 – B.Roethlisberger– 09 of 11 (81.82%) 218 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT – – – 121.64
8) 10/11/09 – E.Manning – – – – 08 of 10 (80.00%) 173 Yards, 2 TD, 0-IT – – – 117.30

With my Schonmeier Rating, the games are not only more accurately ranked, but they are not given a limit. Can anyone honestly look at Tom Brady’s game in 2007 and compare it to Eli Manning’s game in 2009 and say they are equal to each other? Brady’s game is better in Completion Percentage, Yards and Touchdowns. Not to mention he had over twice the attempts and still kept the stats great and everyone knows it is harder to maintain a great game for a longer time. The more attempts a quarterback makes, the more chances of something going wrong to mess the game up.

I have never been able to understand why the NFL has taken to the present Passer rating when it is so faulty.

2 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  2. This comment was deleted because even though I no longer keep this blog up, I will not allow my blog to be used to promote psychics, fortune tellers and/or spiritual guides. Having a Christian background, I believe this stuff is wrong and will not be a part of promoting it or condoning it.

    Not to mention the comment had absolutely NOTHING to do with football, or QB ratings.

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